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Research and Markets: Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling Identifies Periods of Inefficiency and Develops Profitable Forecasting Models

Mallios

served as professor of decision sciences at California State University,

Fresno, for more than twenty-five years and has provided consulting

services for government organizations, including the Food and Drug

Administration and Centers for Disease Control.

Providing valuable insights based on the author’s firsthand experience,

this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify

optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports

gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide

profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Modeling Cointegrated Time Series Associated with NBA and NFL

Games.

11. Single Equation Adaptive Drift Modeling.

8. Opacity and Present Day Variables.

4. Also, anyone

with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the

financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a

valuable resource.

DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/508458/forecasting_in_fin)

has announced the addition of John Wiley and Sons Ltd’s new book “Forecasting

in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling”

to their offering.

Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented,

and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and

betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical

developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. Mallios, PhD, is a consultant at Mallios and Associates,

where he provides professional advisement to various financial, medical,

and educational institutions. A Fulbright Senior Specialist, Dr. The Influenza Futures Markets.

Index.

List of Figures.

Key Topics Covered:

A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets,

with a focus on major current events

Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day

financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and

Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing

effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and

adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. Featuring detailed examples

that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote

financial and mathematical literacy, including:

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/508458/forecasting_in_fin

Preface.

1. A

related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial

forecasting and various links on the topic.

William S. Single Equation Modeling: Sports Gambling Markets.

9. Pseudo Candlestick Graphics for Major League Baseball.

7. Categorical Forecasting.

12. Introduction.

2. Market Perspectives: Through a Glass Darkly.

3. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent

book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the

upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. Financial/Mathematical Illiteracy and Adolescent Problem Gambling:

Epidemics More Damaging Than the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.

13. Adaptive Modeling Concepts in Dynamic Markets.

5. Studies in Japanese Candlestick Charts.

6. The book

uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate

through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on

irrational behavior exhibited during these periods.

Author:

Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets

The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets

Cointegrated time series with model drift

Modeling volatility

. Simultaneous Financial Time Series.

10. The book is also a valuable

reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of

retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series

Using Reverse Line Movement To Win

This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.

So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.

So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..

The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.

NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.

Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season.

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). . All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.

http://prosportsonline.net

To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.

College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.

By: Manny G

prosportsonline.net

Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.

The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.

The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line

Betting on baseball cards – Jul. 28, 2006

But that was until the card companies tried to get in on the fun. Steroids’ next victim: Baseball labor peaceĀ Top of page

Rookie cards of players like Mickey Mantle, who typified the golden era of baseball, are always in high demand among older collectors.

Then there are the cards from the 1970s and 1980s, which predate the card explosion, that some experts like Kelnhofer say could experience the next wave of popularity.

Currently underway in Anaheim, Calif., the four-day event will not only be a place for collectors to haggle over the value of their Lou Gehrigs and Jackie Robinsons, there’s bound to be a few collectors who reflect on how the hobby took a nosedive during the 1990s.

Cards dating back to the turn of the 20th century that were produced as promotional items for ice cream, candy and tobacco companies are some of the hottest cards on the market right now, according to collectors.

In fact, the fabled Honus Wagner card, which was produced by the Sweet Caporal Cigarette Company in 1909, is currently the most expensive card in existence, worth a cool $1.265 million. “It turned people off.”

Dealers like Stephen Dickler, who runs SD Trading, located just outside of Philadelphia, says moves such as this could work, but it’s too early to tell. But with Ripken’s achievement faded from the minds of collectors, that same ungraded card would only fetch $40 today.

The hobby looks like it has rebounded from the doldrums of the 90s, but is there money to be made in collecting Aarons and Ruths?

Even though the hobby struggles to bring young collectors into the fold, there have been some promising signs for baseball card collecting as of late.

Andy Madec, a dealer based in Camarillo, Calif., remembers that time vividly.

What’s hot now

But there is a lot of fickleness too, says Scott Kelnhofer, editor of Card Trade, the monthly trade journal for the sports collection industry

“It just got too out of hand,” says Madec, who runs his own firm, Andy Madec Sports Cards Inc.

Best baseball books

Even in good times, collecting is a tough hobby. (See the most valuable cards.)

“It’s a tricky thing,” Kelnhofer says. “Investors just need to hear it’s safe to go back in.”

And in June, Major League Baseball and the players’ association teamed up with card manufacturers Topps and Upper Deck to launch the first ever National Baseball Card Day, giving out 500,000 card packs at hobby shops and retailers nationwide in an effort to promote the hobby.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Once a year, baseball-card collectors gather for the granddaddy of all sports collectible conventions – the National Sports Collectors Convention.

The market has been bouncing back, particularly vintage cards, those that date backs 25 years or more. Flooding the market with multiple versions of new cards, the manufacturers drove down card values.. “This market has incredible potential,” he says. “The vintage market is still the place for people to get involved purely from an investment standpoint,” says Kelnhofer. “There’s always buyers and sellers for that material.”

Earlier this year, the Major League Baseball Players Association lent their assistance, cutting in half the number of licenses it offers to card manufacturers in an effort to rid the glut of new cards on the market.

Hope for future?

Up until the late 1980s and early 1990s, collectors were living in a golden age, says Madec – returns of 20 percent in just six months were not unheard of. “There’s no guarantee it will happen,” says Dickler. “The questions are still out there as to whether it will have an impact or not.”

Most valuable cards

But many in the industry, like Madec, who is currently attending the National Sports Collectors Convention, is certain that is there is a future for this enduring hobby, despite its setbacks in recent years. In 1996, the year after Ripken broke Lou Gehrig’s record for number of most consecutive games played, a card in mint condition that had not been professionally appraised would have sold for $90. It boils down to a couple of simple principles — how many there are and what kind of condition the card is in.

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Take Cal Ripken Jr.’s 1982 Topps rookie card